20081202

Dear Whoever..........

Nice letter. Was published somewhere and liked it a lot. So here it is on this blog..


Dear Mr. Primeminister

I am a typical mouse from Mumbai. In the local train compartment which has capacity of 100 persons, I travel with 500 more mouse. Mouse at least squeak but we don't even do that.

Today I heard your speech. In which you said 'NO BODY WOULD BE SPARED'. I would like to remind you that fourteen years has passed since serial bomb blast in Mumbai took place. Dawood was the main conspirator. Till today he is not caught. All our bolywood actors, our builders, our Gutka king meets him but your Government can not catch him. Reason is simple; all your ministers are hand in glove with him. If any attempt is made to catch him everybody will be exposed. Your statement 'NOBODY WOULD BE SPARED' is nothing but a cruel joke on this unfortunate people of India.

Enough is enough. As such after seeing terrorist attack carried out by about a dozen young boys I realize that if same thing continues days are not away when terrorist will attack by air, destroy our nuclear reactor and there will be one more Hiroshima.

We the people are left with only one mantra. Womb to Bomb to Tomb. You promised Mumbaikar Shanghai what you have given us is Jalianwala Baug.

Today only your home minister resigned. What took you so long to kick out this joker? Only reason was that he was loyal to Gandhi family. Loyalty to Gandhi family is more important than blood of innocent people, isn't it?

I am born and bought up in Mumbai for last fifty eight years. Look at all the politician, Sharad Pawar, Chagan Bhujbal, Narayan Rane, Bal Thackray , Gopinath Munde, Raj Thackray, Vilasrao Deshmukh all are rolling in money. Vilasrao Deshmukh is one of the worst Chief minister I have seen. His only business is to increase the FSI every other day, make money and send it to Delhi so Congress can fight next election. Now the clown has found new way and will increase FSI for fisherman so they can build concrete house right on sea shore. Next time terrorist can comfortably live in those house , enjoy the beauty of sea and then attack the Mumbai at their will.

Recently I had to purchase house in Mumbai. I met about two dozen builders. Everybody wanted about 30% in black. A common person like me knows this and with all your intelligent agency & CBI you and your finance minister are not aware of it. Where all the black money goes? To the underworld isn't it? Our politicians take help of these goondas to vacate people by force. I myself was victim of it. If you have time please come to me, I will tell you everything.

If this has been land of fools, idiots then I would not have ever cared to write you this letter. Just see the tragedy, on one side we are reaching moon, people are so intelligent and on other side you politician has converted nectar into deadly poison. I am everything Hindu, Muslim, Christian, Schedule caste, OBC, Muslim OBC, Christian Schedule caste, Creamy Schedule caste only what I am not is INDIAN. You politician have raped every part of mother India by your policy of divide and rule.

Take example of former president Abdul Kalam. Such a intelligent person, such a fine human being. You politician didn't even spare him. Your party along with opposition joined the hands, because politician feels they are supreme and there is no place for good person.

Dear Mr Prime minister you are one of the most intelligent person, most learned person. Just wake up, be a real SARDAR. First and foremost expose all selfish politician. Ask Swiss bank to give name of all Indian account holder. Give reins of CBI to independent agency. Let them find wolf among us There will be political upheaval but that will better than dance of death which we are witnessing every day. Just give us ambient where we can work honestly and without fear. Let there be rule of law. Everything else will be taken care of.

Choice is yours Mr. Prime Minister. Do you want to be lead by one person or you want to lead the nation of 100 Crore people?

20080722

Is P. Chidambaram Sleeping……?

Is P. Chidambaram Sleeping……? (21st November 2007)


“Trade Deficit dips to seven month low”; and am talking about U.S. and not India. Since the last few months all the news that is catching my attention is the rising rupee and the steep rise of the share market indices, both gaining heights unimaginable till the beginning of this year. This rise has stirred up much of euphoria in the trading sectors with the FM starting to feel the heat only recently. Such a meteoric rise is unwarranted and is not because of the strong fundamentals as Mr. Chidambaram has rightly pointed out. It is because of an external stimulus so strong that it can break the very flow of the growth path that India has charted on. The rise of the rupee has already started to take its toll on our economy, and the markets are all treading a path to a massive showdown and a brutal correction.

The Indian economy is mainly fuelled by the service sector and the manufacturing is still very much in the back seat. The economic model that we follow is mainly internal consumption based with the funds for the same coming from abroad, mainly the US in the form of revenues from the service sector. All those in the software, BPO business earn big money which is used up in the consumption of goods and services in India giving stimulus, however small to other sectors. The rising rupee, though is something many people are happy about, is not so good if it continues to rise this way.


What I feel is that it is a big political gimmick by the U.S. of A to stifle the growth of countries and make money none the less. Most of the oil companies in the west Asian region are owned and controlled completely by US or US has a major stake in them. This applies to almost all the companies operating from there except the national ones. Not only west Asia but wherever there is oil the US companies have stake in it. The recently inflated oil prices have more than added to the US’ kitty. Even though it shows a huge fuel import bill, US is primarily circulating the money amongst its own and making more of it on the high ruling oil prices. The more the oil prices rise the more it earns and more clout it can have in the various markets around the world.


These petro-dollars are invested heavily in the world markets, especially of the Asian region. This heavy investment drives up the markets and when they have got the profits they wanted they can simply pull off without any remorse, leaving the markets disillusioned of what happened. This pouring in of money results in excess liquidity in the markets, and the extra money that is there in the system jacks up the currency threatening the very core of our economic growth engine. Also the sudden meteoric rise of the markets fuels speculations and sucks in money from other potential investment avenues, leading to a sudden rush of all in one direction. This aggravates the situation as everyone wants to earn money from the rally and in the end it will be just the collusion of the foreign funds that had parked there money here who will be laughing back home.


The weak dollar is one of the ways by the US to counter its burgeoning trade and budget deficits that had spiralled out of its control. The weaker the currency the cheaper is that country, and the export led model that US works on will give it more than a thrust to help improve its situation. Already the results are showing in the form of the falling trade deficits, and a budget deficit that dropped almost 50% of its present value of $162 billion. This has resulted in a rise of exports by the US, though miniscule by the current standards (the rise is just 0.4%). And this rise is mainly because of the rise in the farm produce, industrial supplies and the consumer goods sale. Also the weak dollar will make the imports to the country more expensive giving rise to usage of more domestic products affecting the countries dependent mainly on the US for their markets, India being one of them. The US import bill actually dropped (.4%). The trade deficit with the Chinese dropped by 5.3%, a huge figure considering the trade volumes between the two countries. The annual trade deficit is also down 6.7% for the US.


How a weak dollar is affecting us is anybody’s guess. We deal mainly in dollar terms and lower the value of the currency the more it is a problem for us. The top lines are getting eroded and the bottom lines are in red for our service industry. The more the rise is there the more we are going to get hurt. Because of our model, what it has come to be, is the main problem for us. We are happy chirping our growth songs as long as we keep on getting money from US, once this stops, we are all in for a toss. The US is investing heavily in the markets dependent on it for the sole reason of the congress elections being round the corner and it has to present a clean sheet to its citizens. And India is one of the biggest losers in this power game. The more this trend continues the more we will be pushed back. Already some 500,000 people of the service sector have lost their jobs and this number can just go on increasing if the trend continues. For our economy, this is the right time, actually we are late, to shift to an export led model in this flat, fast globalising world. Only Indian demand cannot fuel our growth to time infinitum.


China, our neighbours are also living in the same world but they have not been affected by this fall in the dollar, on the contrary this year their trade gap rose 56% to $23.9 billion this month with the total of the first nine months of this fiscal at $185 billion already way ahead of the last fiscal results. One of the reasons of this is the fixed Yuan which is not affected by the falling dollar; on the contrary this fall may prove to be beneficial for them as they are able to maintain their cost advantage vis-à-vis the US markets and the businesses just keep on slipping from our hands to their shores. If this continues and the Chinese learn to speak English then we are doomed and may well again be a land of elephants and snake charmers. Also China along with some major mineral producing countries is shifting from dollar to more stable currencies like the euro to lessen the damage. Why are we still too
-tooing the dollar is something not understandable. Is it because we are so sub-servient to the US politico’s whimsical attitude that we have put our country on the back burner and blindly following what US says, or is it that a shift will affect our businesses for a short term and this is not warranted with the people already talking of a mid term polls in the India, again a situation of keeping India on the back burner. China too may be involved in this game so as to regain its clout as the only major country in this region. The Chinese have a geographical motive is what everyone knows since the 60’s. China has never been our friend and even now it is friendlier with our enemies, so deeming china to be a Buddhist lama is not the right thing to do. It was, is and will remain our biggest competitor. We took away its pie in the service industry and it will do anything to get it back. The falling dollar along with the fixed Yuan is a double trouble for the economy. The weak dollar is eroding our wealth and the fixed Yuan is taking away new orders. A double whammy India has to counter. Unlike India the Chinese growth is fuelled more by the external stimulus rather than the internal demands, which again are very high. The Chinese exported some 2.2 billion pairs of shoes, whereas India just a measly 250,000. In India the internal consumption forms a major revenue source where as in china it’s just to augment the already booming growth.

Our economic policies have more or less remained the same then how come all this is happening. The extra liquidity in the markets has led to a problem of surplus. The money is just being pumped into the system, with no outlet and this may lead to an explosion. The high ruling interest rates are another deterrent to help mop up the extra liquidity that has come in. The high interest rates are stopping us from using the free flow of money that has come in. a reduction in the consumer interest along with the reduction in CRR would help us. Also the policies for the funds may be changed to something more inline with our interests than those of the funds that are coming in. Investment in stock markets may be restricted to those funds that buy into our bonds and the money hence raised may be used to fuel or infrastructure and public needs. This will help us getting the much needed cash in the right direction and also the money that comes in will get time to work for the Indian economy instead. The money invested this way cannot be retrenched as fast and as damaging a way that it can be from the markets. The rupee rise this way will be helpful as we will be funding the basics to fuel our economy. The FII should be taxed at par or even more than the Indian funds to gain from their profits and allow only the genuine funds to flourish. The fall in interest rates will make more people to borrow money and the banks would be forced to raise more capital. This would help fuel growth and mop up extra money that is there in the system.

Along with these we have to take care that the people don’t take advantage of this opportunity and invest in speculation. Also shifting from a predominantly dollar based basket of currencies we should shift to more currencies so as to de-risk our profile. This would take some pressure off us and buy us some time to shift to more areas other than just service. Also in software we should try to move to higher end jobs and enter the designing arena rather than just staying in the BPO testing sphere. The government should give more thrust to areas of research and development and help improve the literacy level of the country, not just on paper but in real term to make use of the huge human capital that we have. This alone would help us survive in the long run. Also a push to the manufacturing sector is necessary so as to gain an edge in that sector too. We need to learn a lot from our neighbours: China and Japan. Both these Asian giants took up a model not dependent on the internal demands and have used it to leverage their growth to high and sustainable levels. We should try and not get trapped in the politics of the US and try not use the nuclear carrot that they are dangling in front of us. And our politicos should get a bit more realistic and see that this nuclear deal will not nuke us, not only on the security front but also on the economic front while trying to please US. We should clearly mark our policies so as to help our economy rather than please US for fulfilling the political fiasco by the Indian politicians. As of always our basic goal still remains roti, kapda aur makaan rather than a nuke bomb for everyone.

The Chinese dump us.... !!! (!7th September 2007)

Dumping, we keep on hearing this quite often especially after the advent of the Chinese on the global manufacturing stage. The Chinese are not the first one to take to this kind of un-loading of the goods. Before the Chinese many others, especially Japan, have been accused of this. India also has been accused of dumping of shrimps by the US. What exactly is dumping, according to Wikipedia, a leading online encyclopedia, dumping is an act of exporting and selling of goods to a country at a price lower than the price of the same in ones own country. We can also call it to be “predatory pricing”, as many economists call it. So, what is so bad about it, we are getting goods at a cheaper price than we would other wise, this will lead to more savings and the benefits of the same thereof.

When will you sell some thing at a price lower than the price at which you sell it to your own people? There must be some reason for this act of philanthropy. It is not everyday that we get discounts. One of the reasons may be that the demand of that product has flagged in the domestic market and the excess has to be cleared and the losses covered up as much a possible. A very plausible cause, but if the demand for that product has declined in the domestic market, maybe it is the case in other markets too. A very possible thing to happen, if we have extra with us which cannot be sold in the domestic market as the market is saturated, we can sell it in limited numbers to customers in other countries. There is a possibility of people wanting to buy it, but not going for it maybe because they feel that the value for money and the requirement of the same is not that much, so if we make it available at a cheaper price maybe they will grab them up, in turn making the balance sheets of manufacturers look happier, and also get brownie points from their government for improving the trade balance of the county in their favor.

A reason for the same can be creation of a market in another country when the same has been developed in the domestic market. This early entry ensures a major share in a potential market giving obvious advantages. But then this cannot be called dumping in the real sense of the word. Another reason can be to overwhelm the domestic market with cheap goods so as to cripple the industry, and fracture the economy. A very innovative way to invest in the downfall of an economy and act innocent at the same time. More often than not this is the reason why all of a sudden a country becomes benevolent. In India, China is the main culprit, and damaging the local markets is the only notion. The Chinese have flooded Indian markets with cheap toys, electronics, items of daily utility, to industrial products. All this has had an effect on our industry, especially the toys sector. Now you can easily buy watches by Kg. in a Mumbai market, and get brand new bikes at fraction of the cost at which they are available in the country. The latest case in consideration is that of tires being dumped by the Chinese.

How and when can we say that we have become dumping grounds of any good, only when some one who is getting affected comes up and complains about it. Any country can not just arbitrarily blame any other country or its industry, but has to prove it that its own industry is getting affected by the exports of the other country. There is a long procedure that has to be followed in order to maintain a healthy trade relationship between the countries. Other wise this can be very easily used to hamper the exports of another country and damage its trade. Another way to curb international competition in this increasingly globalized/flat world. The method which is widely followed is to impose a high anti dumping duty/countervailing duty on the dumped products so that they are priced competitively and are sold on merit rather than pricing, this has an advantage of letting the local industry face global competition without letting it get damaged. Recently India imposed a duty of $135, raised from $95 on tyres imported from china.

All that we keep on hearing about dumping is its detrimental effects, but there are some positives as well which we have to find out. This dumping gives the consumer a sneak peek into what is available in the world market, how is it better than the ones that they use, and they getting to use the products which they did not use initially because of lack of availability or price. This increased level of aspiration of the customers then reflects on the manufacturers who start to manufacture goods of better quality, take up lean manufacturing methods, and use more effective means like six sigma and value engineering to cut costs. This has benefits for the customers and the industry alike. The customers get better products at more reasonable prices and the industry more customers. Dumping has helped many a industries to find new customer bases in the lower strata of the society without spending much on the development of the same. A good example will be the bikes market in the country. Lifan, a Chinese manufacturer of bikes started selling 100cc bikes for as low as Rs20000, much lower than the ones available in the country; this helped in tapping a market that was served by bicycles and mopeds. These people graduated to bikes. Ones a customer graduates to a product of a higher value, his aspiration levels are increased and he demands more of the products, luckily the dumped bikes cannot fulfill these for long and then the same customer looks up to models available in the country and helps the industry. Why the bike market is now reducing is a reason totally different, its more to do with the four wheeler market growth, and the second hand market amongst others. Another is the case of watches.

Government subsidies can also lead to products being deemed dumped onto other countries. As the production costs go down, manufacturers can get more profit for a lesser price and these subsidies can be used as a tool by governments to fare an economic war on other countries. Subsidies makes the products manufactured in the country cheap and the one manufactured in other countries seem overpriced by the consumer, who goes in for goods that are cheaper, and some times can also overlook quality if that is not a critical product like health care equipment. This hampers the growth of the industry which is importing to serve its needs, and as the demand for the imported product keeps on growing, the local industry suffers; the government exchequer suffers with increasing import bills. These subsidies have been a bone of contention for many developing countries at the various WTO meets. Many developed nations like the US and Europe pour in subsidies for their farmers bringing down the total cost to unattainable levels. Then the countries dependent on them for food supply suffer. Similar is the case with China, theirs is an export led manufacturing economy, the more they manufacture, the more they export and the more they grow, one of the reasons for the artificially high Yuan prices. So it is but obvious, with globalization being the mantra these days, that they will scavenge markets at the global level, and collapse the weak industries wherever possible. This helps them to find more markets and grow more. “Economic Colonization” we can call it.

Another way to look at it, from the point of view of the government providing subsidy, it is so as to protect a new industry, which is still to grow, or to get it out of a depression. In U.S. and Europe it is agriculture whereas in India it can be taken to be the IT and ITES industry. The Indian government has given tax sops to the IT/ITES industries which have brought down the costs of the goods and services to one of the lowest in the world. Can we deem it to be dumping of services? I think we can. Outsourcing has become one of the major industries and revenue earner in our country and a major issue in the developed nations for they say it has taken a toll on their employment levels. Once the tax sops will be lifted the cost of services will be comparable to the ones around the globe, blunting our competitive edge. If we advocate for the services sector of our country, then instead of crying over dumping we should take steps to take the bull by its horn, and let the tiger overwhelm the dragon.